Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

As the great Bob Dylan once said, the vibes they are a changin’. Or something like that, anyway. It’s been a while since the last update to the official Sugaring Off Vibes-Based VTPoli forecast, let’s look at the state of the campaign with less than a month to go before the primary and early voting well underway.

I’ve decided to introduce primary ratings just to spice things up, these (like all my forecasts) are extremely unscientific, and we still have a couple of weeks to go before the next campaign finance filing deadline.

The LG Race Continues Apace

The most interesting statewide race continues to be the campaign for lieutenant governor. Both the Democrats and the Republicans have contested primaries, with Winooski Deputy Mayor Thomas Renner challenging incumbent Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman of Hinesburg in the Democratic primary and former Democratic State Senator John Rodgers of Glover facing off against noted Stop the Steal Rally participant Gregory Thayer in the Republican primary.

On the Democratic side, I’m comfortable with a Likely rating for David Zuckerman. While I wouldn’t count out the Renner crew just yet, Zuckerman has a big and early lead in fundraising, and Renner got a late start to the campaign. As a caveat, I will note that as far as I can tell, neither Zuckerman nor Renner have begun spending their WAR CHESTS (obligatory war chest reference) on media buys, and I’d expect to see more of those appear as we get closer to the primary.

On a personal note, I’ll add that I have a great deal of respect and admiration for both David Zuckerman and Thomas Renner and their respective campaign teams (many of whom are friends of the page), and I hope that this race will continue to be spirited and civil.

On the GOP side, my best guess is that it’s anyone’s game. Gregory Thayer came awfully close to beating Joe Benning in the 2022 primary, and Benning was running a spirited campaign of the kind that I haven’t seen yet from John Rodgers. Rodgers did just make a $10,000 radio ad buy, so maybe he has more of a campaign operation than I give him credit for, but right now I think it’s too close to call and the map will probably look pretty similar to the ’22 primary.

The Grind for the Green Chairs

The Senate has lots of interesting primaries this cycle. Going alphabetically, I think Addison County is still anyone’s game. All three candidates are now campaigning in earnest, and both incumbent Sen. Chris Bray of New Haven and challenger Rep. Caleb Elder of Starksboro have made big media buys in the last week. Bray spent a sizable $6,000 on mailers from the southern VT firm of Charyk and Francis, so if you’re a Democratic primary voter in Addison County I would expect some mail from the good senator in the next couple of weeks (or months, given the state of the mail in Vermont under Louis DeJoy’s reign as Postmaster General).

In the Grand Isle County/Colchester district formerly represented by the late Sen. Dick Mazza, I think the race leans towards Julie Hulburd, the chair of the Colchester Democrats. While Andy Julow has the advantage of being able to put the letters “Sen” in front of his name following his appointment to the seat this spring, Colchester cast about 2/3 of the primary vote in this district in 2022 and the fact that he’s not well known there will probably hurt him.

In the race to replace Sen. Jane Kitchel of Danville in Caledonia County, I think Amanda Cochrane is the favorite to win the Democratic primary. She has Kitchel’s endorsement and the backing of much of the local Democratic establishment, and I think that will count for quite a bit. In the GOP primary, I don’t think there’s any contest, Rep. Scott Beck of St. Johnsbury is the hands-down favorite to beat 2022 nominee JT Dodge. Mr. Dodge would no doubt dispute my opinion if he were a reader of Sugaring Off, but Beck is incredibly popular in St. J, this district’s population center. He’s also got the backing of Gov. Phil Scott, who got north of 70% of the vote in Caledonia County in 2022, and a massive war chest fundraising advantage. I’ve moved this race from Tossup to Lean R in the general election forecast for that reason.

Perhaps the marquee Senate primary of this cycle is in Chittenden-Central, an oddly shaped district that stretches from Burlington’s Old and New North Ends through Winooski and Colchester to take in most of Essex Junction. Incumbents Phil Baruth and Martine Gulick of Burlington and Tanya Vyhovsky of Essex Junction face a strong challenge from Stewart Ledbetter, a longtime stalwart of the Vermont political press corps. Ledbetter posted a massive July 1st fundraising haul, including donations from former Gov. Peter Shumlin and many notable figures in the Burlington business and property development scenes.

I think Baruth is probably safe no matter what happens. He’s been in the Senate since 2010 and is now running for his eighth term, he has a reserved pew in the Church of Our Lady of Perpetual Incumbency. Vermonters generally don’t like to get rid of entrenched incumbents, and I don’t see any reason to expect that the voters of this district will vote any differently this year.

Sens. Vyhovsky and Gulick, however, are both finishing out their first terms and are much more vulnerable to this challenge from Ledbetter. While I think that they have both distinguished themselves in their committee work thus far, I think that Ledbetter’s big advantage in name ID means that he’s probably likely to win one of the remaining Democratic slots, but I don’t have a guess as to who the odd person out will be. Vyhovsky could always run as a Progressive if she were to lose the Democratic primary, which would certainly make for an interesting general election.

A caveat, Vyhovsky and Gulick have been running a strong joint field operation. Those of you who know me well know that I place a lot of weight on a good ground game, and effective mobilization of volunteers to get out and engage voters directly could be what helps them overcome an oncoming barrage of mail from the Ledbetter campaign.

The House (of the Dragon?)

I don’t know, Representatives Hall has a red color scheme and I was looking for a creative heading. There are five House primaries I’m watching. Let’s begin with the most high-profile, Windham-7, where Ways and Means Chair Emilie Kornheiser is fending off a primary challenge from Amanda Ellis-Thurber. I’m fairly confident that Kornheiser will prevail here. Brattleboro is probably the most liberal and most Democratic municipality in the state (sorry Burlington, but we both know it’s true). and while the property tax issue is certainly hitting people hard across the state, I think if there’s anywhere it wouldn’t be salient enough to sink an incumbent, it would be Brattleboro.

In the Washington-Chittenden District, which is centered in Waterbury, incumbents Theresa Wood and Tom Stevens face a challenge from Elizabeth Brown. Brown is a member of the centrist-coded yet vaguely conservative organization Campaign for Vermont, founded by former GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lisman. Anecdotally, I saw a lot of Brown yard signs up in Waterbury last week, especially outside businesses, but I also saw some in Stowe and one that I think was in Morristown (neither of which are in this district), so I’m not sure what’s going on there. Anyway, yard signs don’t vote, and Wood and Stevens are both fairly entrenche incumbents. This race will be a real test of Vermont’s political environment, but I’d give the edge to the incumbents right now.

In Orleans-4, which is being vacated by State Senate candidate Katherine Sims, Orleans Southwest Supervisory Union Educators’ Association (that’s a mouthful) president Leanne Harple of Craftsbury is facing David Kelley of Greensboro, a former select- and school board member and ski industry lobbyist and attorney. Kelley challenged Governor Howard Dean as a Republican back in 1994. I don’t know which way to call this one, both candidates appeal to very different sections of this district. Also anecdotally, I saw both candidates making the rounds and retail politicking it up at Craftsbury Antiques and Uniques last Saturday, so they’re both taking this campaign seriously.

Chittenden-13 and Bennington-2 are home to the cycle’s two clown car primaries. In both cases, I think the incumbents (Tiff Bluemle and Timothy Corcoran) are near-locks to hold their seats, but I don’t know enough about the other candidates and their campaigns to prognosticate about the fate of the remaining seats.

The Granite City on the Map

I’ve added Washington-3, the district covering Barre City, to the Vibes-Based forecast for the general election. Barre’s city clerk, Carol Dawes, is running as an independent, and city councilor and former school board member Michael Boutin is running as a Republican. I’m holding the race as Likely D for the moment because it’s been a hot minute since the GOP won a legislative race in Barre City, but both Dawes and Boutin could be formidable challengers to incumbent Rep. Jonathan Williams and Councilor Teddy Waszazak, the two Democrats in the race.

And that’s it for this update of the forecast! Expect another one after the August 1st fundraising deadline and another after the primary! To all of you who are out on the campaign trail between now and then, stay hydrated and good luck.