How long can I stretch this ABBA bit?
Well, it’s that time once again, dear readers. For the last week or so, the August 1st campaign finance disclosures have been trickling in, and once again there are some interesting nuggets that bear closer examination. This is the last filing deadline before the August 13th primary, which means these reports are the last concrete datapoints we’re likely to get before the cycle’s spicy primaries are over and done with. Let’s start at the top of the ticket and work our way down.
Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! A Gov After Midnight
First off, the Governor’s race. There’s no seriously contested primary on either side here, and Phil Scott seems to be on a glide path to a fifth term in office, but I feel as though it’s worth discussing. His most likely Democratic opponent, Esther Charlestin, has raised just $3,266 and spent $3,394 in this period. By my calculation, having raised about $16,500 and spent $19,000 over the course of the entire campaign, she’s now $2,480 in the red. With the exception of the redoubtable Burlington State Rep. Tiff Bluemle, the usual suspects of the Democratic donor class are keeping their distance from the Charlestin campaign. For reference, at this point in the 2022 campaign, Democratic challenger Brenda Siegel had raised $58,936 and spent $26,579.
Of course, money isn’t everything, but if you’re going to make a dent in the armor of the most popular governor in America, you’re going to need a sizable WAR CHEST and Charlestin’s campaign isn’t there yet.
The Winner Takes It All (the way to the Lieutenant Governorship)
The MARQUEE race of the 2024 cycle is the contest for Lieutenant Governor. Both Democrats and Republicans have contested primaries here. Incumbent David Zuckerman faces a challenge from Winooski Deputy Mayor Thomas Renner in the Democratic primary, and former Democratic State Senator John Rodgers faces noted Stop the Steal Rally attendee and former Rutland City alderman Gregory Thayer.
Thayer was the first candidate in this race to file a report, so props to him for that. He has raised another $2,350 this period, mostly in loans from himself. The vast majority of his spending is once again on gas and food, including this entry from June 30th:
I don’t know, it made me chuckle. Thayer also paid $50 to attend Pat Brennan’s campaign kickoff, or, in his words, “Pat Brenner,” which conjured up a horrifying mental image of Thomas Renner with Pat Brennan’s signature mustache.
Thayer’s opponent, John Rodgers, had a very good month, raising almost $44,000. In a recent article, I ruminated about where Rodgers got the money for his massive WDEV ad buy. The answer to that question seems to be the same place that other Republicans (and Democratic primary challengers) are getting their money from. Rodgers’s filing has all the familiar names. We’ve got Pecors, we’ve got Tarrants, we’ve got Pizzagallis, we’ve got Lisman and Bove, et cetera.
A bit of inside baseball, Rodgers made a very large payment to Rep. Casey Toof’s consultancy. Toof, a St. Albans Republican, is Rodgers’s campaign treasurer but also seems to be serving in some kind of major strategic capacity.
Over on the Democratic side, challenger and Winooski Deputy Mayor Thomas Renner had a very slow month of fundraising, pulling in just under $5,000 and spending a little more than $5,000. I’ve not seen any major media buys from the Renner campaign, and while they’ve started a field operation in the past week or so it might be too little, too late to move the needle against Zuckerman. Of course, the election isn’t over until all the votes are counted, but I’m keeping my rating at Likely Zuckerman.
Speaking of David Zuckerman, his campaign raised a healthy $35k and spent $23k this period. His campaign has encountered some controversy in recent days over an ethics complaint filed against the Lt. Gov. by Rep. Heather Chase, but I don’t see this potential scandal gaining enough traction between now and Tuesday to alter the outcome of the race.
Senator Stew? Couldn’t escape if we wanted to?
Chittenden-Central is unquestionably home to the most expensive primary of the cycle. In this district stretching from Burlington’s Old and New North Ends to Essex Junction by way of Winooski and Colchester, incumbents Phil Baruth, Tanya Vyhovsky, and Martine Gulick have been investing big on digital and print ads, mailers, and door-to-door operations.
What prompted this sudden surge in activity in a safe seat where incumbents usually cruise to re-election? Longtime Vermont political journalist Stewart Ledbetter has launched a well-funded and aggressive primary campaign, backed by major Republican donors and some of Burlington’s most prominent landlords and business owners. This period, Ledbetter raised another $9,850 and spent over $20,000. His new donors include former Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger, Healthy Living owner Katy Lesser, and assorted Pizzagallis. While he’s spent boatloads of money on mail, digital, radio, and even TV ads (courtesy of the consulting firm Charyk and Francis), he still has almost $30,000 on hand, suggesting that there is, in fact, a limit to how much money you can reasonably spend on a Senate race.
Baruth, the Senate’s President Pro Tempore, has built a campaign out of nothing in the last month. He’s raised $14,000 and spent $11,000. This rapid mobilization and deployment of resources is impressive, to be sure, and is fueled heavily by large contributions from PACs and labor unions. Among Baruth’s donors are the Vermont-NEA, the Vermont State Employee’s Association, the Vermont Credit Union PAC, the Vermont Renewable Energy PAC, the Drug Policy Alliance, and the Montpelier-based lobbying firm Necrason Group. Most of his expenditures went towards printing and advertising, but the Senator also spent $20.66 for lunch at Wendy’s in Essex Junction on July 28th.
Vyhovsky’s fundraising operation really kicked into gear this month, pulling in $15,000 including contributions from the Vermont-NEA and former Republican State Senator Vince Illuzzi. She’s spent just over $5,800 over the course of the whole campaign, largely on direct mail.
Gulick raised another $9,000 this quarter and has spent $7,400 over the course of the whole campaign, mostly on mail (often split with Sens. Vyhovsky and Baruth) and newspaper ads.
All three incumbents were also the beneficiaries of a $10,000 mailing blitz paid for by the Vermont Conservation Voters Action Fund. VCVAF is an independent expenditure PAC that supports candidates endorsed by Vermont Conservation Voters. In the interest of full disclosure, I am a member of the board of directors of the Vermont Conservation Voters 501(c)(4), but I am not privy to any details of VCVAF’s operations other than what is publicly available.
Super Trouper Postcards Drowning Addy
The usually sleepy Addison County Senate race got a shakeup this summer when Rep. Caleb Elder of Starksboro jumped in to challenge incumbents Chris Bray and Ruth Hardy. All three candidates have been spending money like this Vermont political writer in Monroe Street Books (if you for some reason haven’t been to Vermont’s greatest used book warehouse store located in the heart of Addison County, you really must go).
Bray, the senior senator, went from not filing a report on July 1st to raising over $25,000 by August 1st. His donors are a veritable who’s who of Vermont political powerbrokers. Among them are former legislative leaders Shap Smith and Tim Ashe, Democratic megadonors Eugene and Jane Stetson, and former VDP chair Dottie Deans. Also on the list are former “Boy Wonder” and Governor Jim Douglas confidante (and my fellow American University Eagle) Neale Lunderville and a dash of Lisman, Tarrant, and Pomerleau just for flavor. Bray has spent more than $12,000 on direct mail alone. I don’t live in Addison County but if I did I expect I’d be seeing quite a bit of the good senator’s visage in my mailbox these days. UPDATE: minutes after I posted this I saw that Bray spent ANOTHER $8,000 on direct mail. They’ll be repapering their walls with Chris Bray for Senate postcards in Addison County.
Hardy, the junior senator, raised a respectable $7,193 this period and spent $8,000, including contributions from Rep. Sara Coffey of Guilford, the Vermont-NEA, and the Necrason Group. She has spent another $3,000 on direct mail.
Elder, the challenger, has raised another $5,950 and continues to spend money as fast as he can raise it, living up to the adage I once heard from a campaign veteran that a dollar left in your account at the end of a campaign is a dollar wasted. Former Treasurer Beth Pearce is among Elder’s donors this period. Elder is the only candidate in this race that hasn’t bought tons of mail advertising, but he’s also the only candidate with his own campaign band. Make of that what you will.
Mazza Mia! (okay this bit has gone far enough)
The race to succeed the late Senator Dick Mazza continues apace in Colchester and the Islands. As I mentioned in my last article, Republican Rep. Pat Brennan has cleared the primary field and has an impressive campaign treasury. Vying to face him are the appointed incumbent Andy Julow of North Hero and former Colchester Selectboard Member Julie Hulburd.
Julow has raised $4,190 this period, including another loan from himself and a contribution from the Vermont Realtors PAC. While he’s spent some money on direct mail, the bulk of his spending has been on newspaper and radio ads. Hulburd has raised less money (only $1,200 in this period), but has also spent less and on more targeted direct mailers. I still think having a base in Colchester (which comprises about 75% of the district’s population), gives Hulburd the advantage here, but there’s still a week left to go in this campaign.
Caledonia Shakeup?
Amanda Cochrane, Sen. Jane Kitchel’s endorsed successor in the Caledonia County senate race, had another respectable fundraising period, pulling in $7,450, much of that from small donors. By my estimation, this leaves her with just under $8,000 on hand headed into the primary. However, my extremely reputable sources on the ground in the Kingdom are reporting that her primary opponent, Shawn Hallisey of Waterford, has been gaining some traction in recent weeks, so this primary may be closer than expected.
Whoever wins the Democratic primary will almost certainly have to face Rep. Scott Beck of St. Johnsbury in the general election. Beck raised another $13,000 in this quarter, leaving him with an impressive $38,000 on hand. With no serious primary challenge, he’s going to be free to pour his WAR CHEST into media and mailers after the primary. This race will almost certainly be the biggest uphill battle for Senate Democrats this cycle.
House Races to Watch
Keep an eye on the Washington-Chittenden and Windham-7 primaries, where three Democratic committee chairs are fending off primary challenges from first-time candidates with the backing of local conservative and business establishments. These will give us an indicator of just how big the backlash against “the supermajority” could be this fall.
And that’s a wrap on what will probably be my last article before the primary. If you’re working on a campaign (or running for office yourself) stay hydrated, be safe out there, and best of luck. I’ll be doing some live mapping on election night, stay tuned to our Twitter and Instagram feeds for that.
Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple 
Leave a comment