Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

Well, Tuesday’s primary has come and gone, bringing on the customary surge of relief among partisan hacks like yours truly that comes with the end of internecine squabbling and the start of the general election campaign. Tuesday night brought few surprises, but the results may shed some insights on what’s to come in November. This article will cover the statewide races, two subsequent articles will talk about the State Senate and State House.

The Federal Races

None of the primaries for Vermont’s U.S. Senate and House seats were contested. On the Democratic side, incumbents BERNIE SANDERS and Becca Balint seem to be on a glide path to re-election. The GOP Senate primary was won by Gerald “DEPLOY MALLOY” Malloy of Weathersfield, he of simple yet arguably menacing eagle fame. The GOP House primary was won by Mark Coester of Westminster, who was disavowed by the Vermont GOP during his run for State Senate in 2022 after fascist symbols were spotted on his truck during a parade. Neither of these races are expected to be competitive in November.

The Race for Governor

Governor Phil Scott was unopposed in the Republican primary as he seeks a fifth term in office. On the Democratic side, Esther Charlestin of Middlebury has won 46.93% of the vote. with 18.33% going to former Underhill selectman Peter Duval. Now that more towns have counted their write-in votes, we can report that in the *Democratic primary,* Phil Scott won the towns of Pittsford, Highgate, Sheffield, Sheldon, Eden, and Glover, and tied in the towns of Alburgh and Troy, via write-in vote. It’s possible that Scott won even more towns, as some still haven’t reported their write-ins. While none of these towns are Democratic bastions, it lends credence to my theory that if Phil Scott were to enter a Democratic primary he’d have a decent shot at winning.

Charlestin’s nomination is historic, to be sure. As far as I know, she is the first woman of color nominated for statewide office by a major party in Vermont’s history. However, her failure to crack 50% against an opponent who was not earnestly campaigning and Scott’s high write-in total combined with her campaign’s sluggish fundraising make it clear that this is Scott’s race to lose.

Dave & Thomas & John & Greg

By far the most interesting primary on either side of the aisle was the race for lieutenant governor. On the Democratic side, incumbent David Zuckerman turned back a challenge from Winooski Deputy Mayor Thomas Renner. I mapped the preliminary results of this race on election night. Zuckerman beat Renner by nearly 20 points, breaking through his historical 45% primary ceiling. He made his biggest gains in the Northeast Kingdom and Franklin and Lamoille Counties, areas where his historical opponents Kitty Toll of Danville and Shap Smith of Morristown had previously done very well. He also improved his showings in Rutland County, an area where he’s always been relatively strong and where the Renner campaign didn’t have as much of a presence.

Renner put up a genuinely impressive showing for having launched his campaign just days before the filing deadline and not having spent much on media until the closing days of the race, taking a little more than 36% of the vote. He won a smattering of towns across the state, and I only have analysis to offer on a few of them.

First off, he won his hometown of Winooski, which is unsurprising. Renner is popular in the Onion City and the home turf advantage is strong. Also in Chittenden County, Renner won the city of Essex Junction by one vote. I credit this win to my Essex Junction friends who were working for Renner’s campaign, and to them I say well done. He won the ski town of Stowe, one of the wealthiest towns in the state. If there was ever a place that wouldn’t find Zuckerman’s Bernie Sanders-style populism appealing, it would probably be Stowe. Lastly, he won a sizable victory in the town of Danville, the home of the “Beattie-Toll-Kitchel Political Machine,” (more on that later) where he no doubt benefitted from the endorsements of Toll and her sister Sen. Jane Kitchel.

On the Republican side, former Democratic State Senator John Rodgers of Glover handily defeated former Rutland City Alderman and noted Stop the Steal Rally attendee Gregory Thayer. While I haven’t mapped this one yet, the breakdown was similar to the 2022 primary, with Rodgers sweeping the northern counties much like Joe Benning and Thayer continuing to hold the southern counties.

This race will be the most interesting statewide competition of the season by a long shot. Zuckerman and Rodgers are both farmers (I wonder how long it’s been since two farmers faced off on a Vermont ballot) with populist rhetoric and similar stances on many issues. Rodgers has a bit more of a libertarian streak than Zuckerman, who’s a longtime member of the Progressive Party. I’m going to start this race off as Likely Democratic, but I could see it getting closer as the campaign progresses. And these debates are going to be must-see television and must-listen radio.

The H. Brooke Paige Cinematic Universe

The other statewide races brought little in the way of excitement. On the Democratic side, Treasurer Mike Pieciak ran about 2000 votes ahead of his comrades Secretary of State Sarah Copeland-Hanzas, AG Charity Clark, and Auditor Doug “Campaign? Me? Preposterous!” Hoffer.

The Republicans have found one candidate not named H. Brooke Paige to round out their ticket thus far, Joshua Bechhoefer of Cornwall. Bechhoefer won the GOP nomination for Treasurer on Tuesday and will face off against Pieciak in November. It remains to be seen whether the state party will nominate replacements for Vermont’s own Sir Topham Hatt before the ten day window closes. Mr. Paige has now entered 26 elections in the last twelve years and won fifteen, which is a win rate of 56%.

And that’s a wrap on part one of the primary breakdown! Stay tuned for writeups of all the cycle’s spiciest senate and house primaries.