Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

The primary is now behind us, so you know what that means! It’s time for an update to the Vibes-Based Forecast. I’ll just be reviewing the changes and newly added races in this article, a forthcoming one will survey the whole field of play as the general election campaign kicks off.

The Statewides: Farmer Face-off

The race for Lieutenant Governor between incumbent David Zuckerman of Hinesburg and challenger John Rodgers of Glover has moved from Too Early to Likely Democratic.

Rodgers is by far the stronger of Zuckerman’s two would-be Republican challengers, and will likely be able to re-assemble Joe Benning’s broad coalition in the Northeast Kingdom. He may also benefit from the backing of the eternally popular Phil Scott. However, Scott’s coattails have historically been… how shall I put it… non-existent. While Rodgers may have appeal to moderate and conservative Democrats (being one himself), I don’t think he’ll be able to get to 50% in a statewide race. This will be the closest statewide race this fall, but I’m fairly certain that Zuckerman will pull off another victory.

The Senate: Cochranementum in Caledonia and Orange De-Orbits

I’m making two changes to the Senate map. First, I’m moving Caledonia from Lean Republican to Tossup. Amanda Cochrane did much better than I was expecting in her primary despite both Scott Beck and John Rodgers being on the GOP ballot, which leads me to think this race might be closer than some observers previously thought. If I had to call the toss, I’d still err on the side of Beck, but I think Cochrane has the momentum heading into the fall.

Second, I’m taking Orange off the board, moving it from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. While my Republican correspondents were bullish on their recruit, Larry Hart, at the beginning of the summer, he’s raised no money that we’re aware of and doesn’t seem to be campaigning. Incumbent Sen. Mark MacDonald trounced his well-funded and aggressive (and very controversial opponent) John Klar in 2022 despite suffering a stroke in the closing months of the campaign, and I see no reason to believe that Hart will perform any better.

House Shakeups

There are a few changes to the House map worth noting. First, in the Caledonia-Essex District based in St. Johnsbury, the Republicans have found a last-minute candidate in Deborah Dolgin. Since she just got into the race, I haven’t been able to gather a lot of information on her or her campaign, but it seems the St. J. Republicans are making a last-minute bid to hold onto Scott Beck’s seat. Out of an abundance of caution, I’m moving this one from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic.

In Burlington’s Chittenden-17 District, I’m moving the rating from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic. Incumbent Abbey Duke’s primary opponent, Missa Aloisi, is moving on to the general as a Progressive. However, Aloisi ran well behind Duke in Wards 4 and 7, which cast the majority of this district’s votes, and I’m comfortable moving it deeper into the Democratic column.

There’s still a chance that a longer campaign will give Aloisi time to re-assemble the coalition that Emma Mulvaney-Stanak was able to put together in her 2020 primary challenge to Rep. Jean O’Sullivan, but the primary results don’t give me much reason to believe that will happen.

Republicans have also recruited 2022 nominee Bruce Busa to make another bid for the Bennington-1 House District based in Pownal. He lost his last bid for House by just 26 votes to Rep. Nelson Brownell, who is retiring. Busa will face Democratic candidate Jonathan Cooper in November, and I’m starting this race at toss-up.

Former Barre City Mayor Lucas Herring of Northfield and Dave Rapacz of Berlin won write-in nominations to challenge incumbents Ken Goslant and Anne Donahue in Washington-1. With Donahue running as an independent and at least one apparently strong Democratic candidate, this could be an interesting one, but I’m starting it as Lean Republican because of Donahue and Goslant’s long tenures.

And that’s all the news that’s fit to print as far as changes to the Vibes-Based Forecast go! Stay tuned for my next piece on the current state of play in the legislative races.