Welcome to the first part of Sugaring Off’s “Better Know a Battleground” series. I’d call it “Better Know a District,” but I don’t want Comedy Central’s lawyers to come after me for stealing the name of Stephen Colbert’s old segment.
The first district we’re highlighting is Rutland-2, which after redistricting contains all of the Rutland County towns of Wallingford, Clarendon, and West Rutland, as well as most of Rutland Town. This two-member district was the closest in the state in 2022, when incumbent and noted transphobe Art Peterson beat former Rep. Dave Potter by seven votes in the preliminary results. A recount narrowed Peterson’s lead to just five votes.
The team of Potter and his several-time running mate Ken Fredette of Wallingford were able to outrun the Democratic State Senate slate and Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman, making the results in this district look more like the 2020 presidential results. That’s no mean feat, as this part of Vermont (like many other rural towns in Rutland County and the NEK) is much more Republican down-ballot than it is federally.
This year, the odious Peterson is not seeking re-election, and incumbent Burditt will be joined on the Republican ticket by Dave Bosch of Clarendon. Potter does not have a running mate this year, which could be very good for him or very bad. If he’s able to get the district’s Democrats to bullet vote for him and not scatter their votes among the two Republican candidates, he might be able to eke out a narrow second-place win. By the same token, if Democratic-leaning voters in this district don’t bullet vote, depending on how the second votes are distributed, he might end up coming up third in the three-person race.
This district, like many rural and “exurban” districts around the country, has shifted to the right as national politics have become more polarized, especially in the age of Trump. Potter won close but comfortable margins in every election from 2004 to 2018 before narrowly losing to Peterson in 2020. As a case study for how this district has changed, let’s look at West Rutland. West Rutland used to be a center of the marble industry, home to many “white ethnic” voters from Ireland, Italy, Poland, and the like, even hosting two Catholic churches (one Irish, St. Bridget, and one Polish, St. Stanislaus) which is unusual for a town that’s never had a population over 3,500.
The town also used to give Democrats margins of 70 and 80% in statewide races, even Democrats like Congressman William H. Meyer who lost his re-election bid in a landslide in 1960. Potter could count on handily winning second place in West Rutland even into the 2010s. Needless to say, in the present age of de-industrialization, the decline of labor influence on voter choice, and Donald Trump, those days are gone, and West Rutland now gives 50-60% of the vote to Republicans in almost every state and federal elections.
While this district was the closest in the state in 2022, I don’t think it will hold the title this year. Notwithstanding, I still think Potter is the best candidate the Democrats could have hoped for here, and with an open seat they have at worst an even money chance to send Potter back to Montpelier. The Vibes-Based Forecast rating for this district is Tossup.
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