Next up in our “Better Know a Battleground” series we’re covering the Orange-1 District, where incumbent Democrat Carl Demrow is facing a challenge from Mike Tagliavia, the 2022 GOP nominee for Attorney General. And what better district to look at at this spooky time of year! This district is home to the village of East Corinth, where the outdoor scenes of the 1988 film Beetlejuice and its sequel were filmed. This was one of the closest contests in the state in 2022, when Demrow made a successful comeback bid against incumbent Rep. Samantha Lefebvre by just over 100 votes. This district was a two-seater before the 2022 redistricting cycle, when Williamstown and Chelsea were carved off into a seperate single member district. In 2020, Lefebvre had ousted Demrow in part thanks to former Progressive Rep. Susan Hatch Davis carrying on to the general election as just a Prog after coming third in the Democratic primary.
Geographically and politically, this is a very interesting district and is in many ways a microcosm of this part of Vermont’s political evnrionment. In one end of the district, deep-blue Vershire is a prototypical Upper Valley town, giving sizable margins to Democratic candidates in almost every election and punching above its weight in terms of turnout despite being the smallest town in the district. On the end, Washington, which used to be solidly Democratic when the granite industry was still booming in nearby Barre, has become more and more Republican as the quarries have closed and more and more farms have gone under. The town is still competitive; Demrow narrowly won it in 2022, but this is one of the towns I expect Former President Trump could flip on the federal level this year.
This race will be won or lost in Corinth, the hometown of both candidates. Both candidates carried it, and with it the district, in their respective 2022 campaigns. Tagliavia is about as solid a recruit as the GOP could have landed here, short of bringing back Lefebvre. However, Demrow put up a better showing, cracking 60% against Lefebvre while Tagliavia won the town by just a single vote over Charity Clark.
If I had to call this race today, I would say that Tagliavia wins Washington convincingly and is able to flip Orange back into the GOP column. However, I don’t think he’ll do well enough in Corinth to overcome Demrow’s home-turf advantage plus the healthy margin he’s sure to get from Vershire. This will be a close one, but I’m confident enough to give it a “Leans Democratic” rating in the ol’ vibes-based forecast.
*I starred the State Senate results because the town of Orange was moved into the Washington Senate District during redistricting and thus was not privy to the same contest between Mark MacDonald and John Klar. I calculated the results for the map by adding the vote totals of the Democratic and Republican candidates together.
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