Many years ago, legendary VPR (excuse me, Vermont Public) political reporter Bob Kinzel identified five towns that closely mirrored the statewide results of nearly every gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial contest going back to 1960. Those towns are Cambridge, Jericho, Bethel, Randolph, and Bristol.
Vermont native Tyler Ballard, now a political science PhD student at Brown, did a study on the mirror towns as part of his senior thesis at Castleton and found, as he told Mitch Wertlieb in 2020, that “it works until it doesn’t.” That is to say, there’s not necessarily any predictive value behind the mirror town theory, but it is an interesting historical trend.
Kinzel’s model has one caveat: if a candidate has a “home field advantage” in one or more of the towns, they aren’t counted for that year. For example, in 2008, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gaye Symington had represented Jericho in the State House for many years and got a significant hometown bump there, and thus Jericho doesn’t end up mirroring the statewide results.
Having said that, let’s take a look at how the mirror towns did in 2024. First, we’ll check where the candidates for governor and lieutenant governor are from:
- Governor Phil Scott, the Republican incumbent, grew up in Barre and lives in Berlin. No conflict there unless the Barre Aura was radiating down 89 into Bethel and Randolph.
- Esther Charlestin, the Democratic challenger for governor, lives in Middlebury. Middlebury abuts Bristol, but Charlestin is still somewhat new to the state and had only appeared on a local ballot once previously, in her 2021 selectboard campaign. No conflict here.
- Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman lives in Hinesburg and started his political career in Burlington. However, he did represent Jericho in the State Senate, so there might be something out of whack there.
- John Rodgers, the Democrat-turned-Republican challenger for Lt. Gov., lives up in the Kingdom in West Glover, pretty far away from any of the mirror towns, so there’s no conflict here either.
Now that we’ve ruled out potential home field advantages that might unduly influence the reflective nature of the mirror towns, let’s look at the margins in each compared to the statewide results:
| Governor | Statewide | Bethel | Bristol | Cambridge | Jericho | Randolph |
| Scott (Berlin) | 71.45% | 71.73% | 70.46% | 77.19% | 72.26% | 73.41% |
| Charlestin (Middlebury) | 21.24% | 21.63% | 23.95% | 16.46% | 23.03% | 21.24% |
| Lt. Gov. | Statewide | Bethel | Bristol | Cambridge | Jericho | Randolph |
| Rodgers (Glover) | 46.09% | 46.11% | 47.99% | 46.75% | 41.67% | 46.97% |
| Zuckerman (Hinesburg) | 44.48% | 45.16% | 45.7% | 45.18% | 50.27% | 44.15% |
Looking at these tables, it seems that the mirror towns are by and large still mirroring away in 2024! There are two possible exceptions: One, Scott ran about six points ahead of his statewide total in Cambridge. I don’t have any solid theories as to why that might be but feel free to speculate in the comments below. Two, Jericho went for Zuckerman by about nine points even as he lost the state by a point and a half. This could be because Zuckerman had represented Jericho in the Senate as I mentioned before. It could also be that polarization has finally made it out Route 15 a-ways and made Jericho a little less politically elastic than the other towns which are still well outside of Burlington’s orbit.
Anyway, for an election somewhat out of the ordinary in modern Vermont politics, what with the lopsidedness of the gubernatorial race and the tightness of the LG contest, the mirror towns held up pretty well! Congratulations to Bob Kinzel. I hope you’ve enjoyed this little jaunt with me into spreadsheet world, and I hope to see you next time!
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Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple 
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