With a little over a week to go before the Vermont General Assembly reconvenes, it seems like a good time to look at the contested race for the Speakership between incumbent Rep. Jill Krowinski (D-Burlington) and challenger Rep. Laura Sibilia (I-Dover).
When we last tuned into the legislative leadership contests, the Democratic caucus had voted 60-18 against allowing Sibilia to be a candidate in their internal election. Among those voicing support for Sibilia’s bid were some of the remaining Democratic “frontliners,” who had races that were much closer than expected. These included Reps. John O’Brien of Tunbridge and Lucy Boyden of Cambridge. The singular Rep. Jay Hooper of Randolph caused “a stir” (VTDigger) in support of Sibilia’s candidacy.
My back-of-the-napkin electoral calculus is this: If Sibilia could get all 18 of the Democratic caucus members who voted to permit her candidacy in her corner along with all four Progressives, 56 Republicans, and the two other independents (plus herself, of course), she’d have 81 votes, five more than the needed 76.
The eagle-eyed amongst you have already seen that I’ve been keeping track of public endorsements in the Speakership race on the good ol’ Vibes-Based Forecast Spreadsheet. In the race to 76, as far as I can tell, Krowinski has 14 names publicly in her column while Sibilia has just 5. (If any of you are aware of public statements or endorsements from lawmakers that aren’t reflected in the table, please let me know).
The newest name in the Krowinski column is that of Rep. Ashley Bartley (R-Fairfax). Bartley, who is about to begin her second term representing the Franklin-1 district, is very much on the moderate wing of her caucus. In her first term, she’s distinguished herself as an eloquent voice on housing and affordability issues. She’s exactly the kind of lawmaker that Sibilia would have hoped to bring into her coalition. However, on December 28th, Bartley posted a Twitter (we don’t use the AP stylebook at Sugaring Off so there will be none of this “X” business) thread in which she endorsed Krowinski for re-election.
As I said, Bartley is a moderate, so her endorsement isn’t necessarily indicative of the direction that her caucus will take in this race. However, even just a few more Republicans crossing over to vote for Krowinski could be enough to save her speakership and tank Sibilia’s bid.
Further complicating Sibilia’s calculus is the fact that many of the lawmakers who would have been most likely to support her won’t be in Montpelier this January because they lost re-election. Outgoing Rep. Josie Leavitt of Grand Isle published an op-ed in Digger on 12/11 endorsing Sibilia’s candidacy, and I’ve heard on background from a couple of other defeated Democratic legislators that they would have backed Sibilia as well.
So, is it Sibilover? To quote the Magic 8 Ball: reply hazy, try again later, but signs point to yes. Sibilia is running a spirited campaign (and an unusual, one both in the fact that it exists and that she’s raised money and hired a campaign manager, former Rep. Lucy Rogers of Waterville). However, there are a couple of factors that give cause for doubt.
The Progressive Caucus has been strangely (and uncharacteristically) quiet on this contest, which along with the election of Democratic/Progressive Reps. Mary-Katherine Stone and Heather Surprenant to leadership positions augurs that Krowinski might have shored up support on her left flank since the 2023 budget fight. Bartley’s endorsement of Krowinski signals that she might not be able to pull enough support from Republicans either.
Without the en bloc support of the left or the right, the path to 76 gets very, very narrow. Still doable, but narrow. A lot can change in a week, but if I had to give this contest a Vibes-Based™ Rating I’d put it at Likely Krowinski, on the edge of Solid Krowinski. Stay tuned for more, this will be an interesting one.
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