Mamma Mia, here we go again! Just when the good people of Burlington, Winooski, Essex Junction, and parts of Colchester and Essex Town thought they had recovered from the bonanza of mailers, yard signs, and campaign ads they were exposed to in last year’s very expensive and hotly contested State Senate primary, it looks like they’re in for another busy cycle.
According to a Campaign Finance Disclosure filed a couple of days ago and a publicly accessible ActBlue fundraising page, Emerge Vermont Executive Director Elaine Haney of Essex Junction will be the first candidate to throw her hat in the ring in Chittenden-Central. This three member district is currently represented by Democrats Phil Baruth and Martine Larocque Gulick of Burlington and Progressive Tanya Vyhovsky of Essex.
You may remember that last year, longtime Vermont journalist Stewart Ledbetter of Winooski ran in the Democratic primary in this seat to try to knock off one of the incumbents. He had the at first tacit and later explicit backing of Governor Scott, as well as major financial support from prominent Republican donors, landlords, and businesspeople. Brother Stew spent nearly $60,000 (the sixth-highest spending total for any State Senate campaign in Vermont history) to finish in fourth place behind the three incumbents.
As far as I know, none of the three incumbents have announced their intentions for next year. Haney will certainly be a formidable candidate – in addition to her deep roots in Essex politics, where she’s served on the city council, selectboard, and former Village Board of Trustees, she’s also the executive director of Emerge Vermont. Emerge is a national organization dedicated to training Democratic women to run for office, and the Vermont branch has had considerable success. Haney will no doubt be able to tap into this statewide (and even nationwide) network of electeds, candidates, donors, and activists for fundraising, volunteers, and endorsements.
There’s also precedent for Emerge Vermont executive directors springboarding from that post into the green end of the State House – Haney’s predecessor, Ruth Hardy, was first elected to represent Addison County in the Senate in 2018 and is still in office.
If Haney is the only non-incumbent in the race, I think she’d have a chance of beating Sen. Vyhovsky in the Democratic primary. I’d have to see initial fundraising numbers for both and get a sense of the scope and activity of their campaigns to gauge exactly how much of a chance Haney would have, but she’d definitely have a shot. She’s better-known (and better-trusted) in Democratic establishment circles than Ledbetter and could eat into Vyhovsky’s geographic base in Essex Junction and Essex Town. Certainly, it would be hard for the incumbents to paint her as a Phil Scott plant given her long involvement in Democratic politics.
The really interesting scenario would be if Ledbetter ran again as well – if he does I think the incumbents would probably be assured of another victory. Multi-member districts protect incumbents. People may vote for a challenger but then, usually, their other votes get distributed to the incumbents randomly enough to keep their heads above the water. With two challengers, who aren’t likely to slate with each other to keep their voters’ second and third votes from flowing to the incumbents, it becomes that much harder to see a path to victory for either one.
Whatever happens, this will be a district to watch next August. Strap in and clean out your mailboxes, Winooski Delta denizens, you’re going to get a whole lot of mail in about seven months.
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