What had been the worst kept secret in Vermont Democratic politics became secret no more today when Seven Days’s Colin Flanders broke the news that former Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray will follow in the footsteps of her predesuccessor (a word I made up) David Zuckerman and make a comeback bid for the role of second banana.
Gray told Brother Flanders “I’m ready to get off the sidelines. To bring my skills, strength and clarity to bear to help Vermont get through this moment, and — with a lot of humility and perspective — get back to work in an office where I had a lot to offer.”
We last saw Lieutenant Governor Gray on the political stage in 2022. Fresh off her come-out-of-nowhere blitz to seize Room 14 in 2020 thanks to a massive infusion of support (and cash) from the Leahy/Welch wing of the VDP, she seemed like a cinch to clinch Vermont’s congressional seat when then-Congressman Welch moved to succeed Leahy in the Senate.
However, the institutional support (and money) that mobilized behind her once again wasn’t enough to send her to Washington. She lost the Democratic primary in a landslide to then-Senate President Becca Balint after running one of the most confusing and negative campaigns in recent Vermont history.
During the primary, her campaign assailed the Balint camp for the considerable outside spending on their behalf by the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. Believe me, I got the mailers too, there was a *lot* of independent expenditure going on in that race, and both candidates were supporters of campaign finance reform. However, for me, as a queer Vermonter, Gray’s criticism was sometimes too pointed for comfort.
At times, it seemed that her objection was not to outside money getting involved in Vermont politics (after all, she collected large donations from DC-based lobbyists and PACs herself) but that her objection was to all the *gay* money coming into the race to support the gay candidate (Balint). I don’t accuse the Lieutenant Governor of having any prejudice against LGBTQ people, but the rhetoric that she was using (especially in 2022, when the Don’t Say Gay movement was at fever pitch) weighed on me as I cast my ballot in that primary and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
Gray also chose a positively bizarre line of attack in the closing weeks of the campaign. Quoth the Grayven: “Do they want to send the next member of ‘the Squad’ or the Congressional Progressive Caucus to Washington? Or do they want to send the next Pat Leahy or Peter Welch? Someone who’s a pragmatic Democrat, who has a track record of working across the aisle?”
First of all, Peter Welch was a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, so this didn’t make any sense at all. Second, painting your opponent as the next Bernie Sanders is a fascinating choice in a state that’s elected Bernie to statewide office twelve times. Hindsight is 20/20, but this line, to me, epitomized the central problem of Gray’s campaign: she was fundamentally out of touch with the primary electorate. Gray didn’t have the sauce and her attacks on Balint were puzzling and off-putting.
But now, Lt. Gov. Gray is back, and I think, as with any candidate, that she deserves a fair look from the voters and from scribblers like myself. What has she been up to for the last four years? She currently serves as Executive Director of the Vermont Afghan Alliance, doing by all accounts very good work helping Afghan refugees resettle in our state.
And she’s seeking to return to Room 14, a quest that will require her to clear another Democratic primary, and defeat incumbent John Rodgers in the general election (assuming that he survives his own primary). What are her chances?
Well, first, there’s the Democratic primary. The other two candidates that I’ve heard about from multiple sources are Esther Charlestin and Ryan McLaren. “But wait,” I hear you cry, “is this the same Esther Charlestin who lost to Phil Scott last year by 52 percentage points? That Esther Charlestin?” Dear reader, you are correct. Former Middlebury Selectboard member and 2024 Democratic nominee for governor Esther Charlestin is widely rumored to be about to jump into the LG race. I’ve written extensively about the Charlestin campaign (or lack of a campaign) and all that I have to say right now is that if she’s considering a run for LG against a Republican incumbent I fear she badly misinterpreted the results of last year’s election. Should she get into the race, I’ll wish her the best of luck and analyze her new campaign on the merits, but her performance last year doesn’t suggest an impending wave of Charlestinmentum.
The other potential challenger to Gray intrigues me much more, and I confess I was surprised when I heard people mention his name. Ryan McLaren has run Peter Welch’s political operation for the last decade, worked in the Shumlin administration, and served on the Essex school board. It’s not a conventional resume for a lieutenant governor, but then neither are those of Molly Gray or Esther Charlestin. McLaren is well liked in VDP circles (he was elected as one of Vermont’s DNC members last year) and, of course, has close ties to Welch World, which might hamper Gray’s efforts to reassemble the coalition that propelled her to the LG’s office in 2020. Should he jump in the race, I’ll be interested to see how he positions himself and how he performs on the trail – he’s never run for anything higher than school board as far as I know but he’s been in politics for a long time.
Unless another candidate materializes between now and next May (which is very possible, at this point in 2015 we were talking about Garrett Graff for Lt. Gov., a lot could change between now and the deadline), it looks like this will be a race between Gray and McLaren. I think that either one of them would be a viable candidate against John Rodgers in a general election. However, this article is about Molly Gray, so let’s return to her. In her past races for LG and Congress, the three most prominent critiques against her were 1) that she was too ambitious, a ladder-climber using the LG’s office as a stepping stone to higher office, 2) that she hadn’t lived in Vermont for many years before she ran and hadn’t voted in 2016, and 3) that she was too light on policy.
Let’s dispense with the first one right away. As you may be able to tell, I’m not a die-hard Molly Gray fan, but nobody runs for Lieutenant Governor for the love of being Lieutenant Governor. The job has no real responsibilities except to listen to John Bloomer (the Senate Secretary) and hope that the governor doesn’t keel over or resign. Everyone who seeks that job has their eye on the next thing, and I think that if Gray weren’t a woman she’d hear much less of this line of attack. Ambitious women in politics are always the subject of questions like this. There are legitimate issues to prod Molly Gray on, this isn’t one of them.
The second one is, I think, fair, especially given the extent to which she’s highlighted her resume in her previous races. She spoke at length about having “nearly half a decade of experience in Washington” which included a year as Peter Welch’s scheduler and three years working for the Red Cross. When she was living abroad, she didn’t vote in 2016, but I’ll give her credit for trying – voting from abroad is difficult. Could she have started the process earlier or tried harder? Probably, but that was ten years ago now and I don’t think it’s the most relevant thing to attack her on.
As for the policy line, I think this is fair. In her ads in 2020 and 2022, she focused heavily on her upbringing on the family farm and listing off entries from her resume. In debates with Becca Balint in 2022, she seemed more focused on hammering campaign finance issues and “the next member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus” over articulating her own policy vision.
Elections aren’t won or lost over white papers, but Gray’s campaigns were always heavy on bio and light on substance. This, I think, is the place where she’s weakest and where I’ll be interested to see if she’s changed her tactics in the last four years. She mentioned paid leave, which has always been a front-and-center issue for her (just ask Tim Ashe), as well as healthcare and the cost of living in her interview, we’ll see if she follows up on that.
A coda to this ramble, and I quote again from Flanders:
“Much of her time has been devoted to helping Afghans navigate the bureaucratic boondoggle that is America’s immigration system.
The gig has provided an up-close view to the “deeply inhumane and hurtful impacts” of the Trump administration’s policies, she said. It has also shown her where state leaders are falling short on protecting their most vulnerable residents. She pointed to Gov. Phil Scott administration’s recent decision to stop extending food assistance benefits to Afghans and other refugees in response to changing federal guidance, and to the “constant state of fear” that many people now find themselves in amid reports of immigration roundups and deportations.
“Vermonters need cover,” she said. “I want to make sure no Vermonter feels like they’re on their own.””
This sounds like somebody who wants to run for governor, not for LG. It’s hard to give cover to anyone when you’re in a ceremonial office with no practical power. So, my exhortation to Molly Gray, since there’s still no Democrat in the race for Governor, is to aim higher! If you think you have the chops, and you have the desire to protect Vermonters from the policies of the Trump administration, step up to the plate and challenge Phil Scott!
Whatever may happen, it looks like we’ll at least have an interesting LG race on our hands next year. And you can bet we’ll be talking about it right here on Sugaring Off!
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