The second-worst kept secret in Montpelier (besides Molly Gray’s no-longer-secret bid to return to the LG’s office) is now out: former Senate President Pro Tempore Tim Ashe has filed to run for Auditor.
We last saw Senator Ashe on the #vtpoli mainstage in 2020, when he seemed like a cinch to clinch the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor. That is, until Molly Gray surged onto the scene to beat Ashe by a close but respectable margin of 12,000 votes during the first COVID election.
Since his loss to Gray, Ashe has served as Deputy Auditor under current Auditor Doug Hoffer. Hoffer announced last year that this would be his final term and said something along the lines of “I’ve got a great deputy,” so it seems likely that Ashe’s run will get the boss’s imprimatur.
Ashe certainly has a resume that’s well tailored to the office: four years as Hoffer’s deputy and twelve years in the State Senate (including four as Pro Tem and a stint as chair of the powerful (obligatory use of POWERFUL) Finance Committee) is nothing to sneeze at. Certainly, he knows state government and the budgetary process inside and out. I’d be comfortable calling him the frontrunner in this race, but I was also comfortable calling him the frontrunner in 2020, so let’s take a look at his competition.
As devoted readers will recall, Ashe is the second candidate to “officially” jump in the race. The first was Nick Graeter, a Williston accountant and former golf influencer. Graeter, who I’ve now had the privilege of interacting with a couple of times over social media, seems like a genuine guy who cares deeply about Vermont and will have good contributions to make in this race, but as a first-time candidate he may struggle to gain traction in what’s shaping up to be a crowded field.
The other two candidates that I’ve heard buzz about are Linda Joy Sullivan (formerly of Dorset, now of Newport), a former state rep (from Dorset) and mayor (of Newport) who unsuccessfully challenged Hoffer in the past and Rep. Emilie Kornhesier of Brattleboro, the chair of the powerful (second obligatory POWERFUL) House Ways and Means Committee.
Sullivan out-raised Hoffer in 2020 and was able to give him a real race, especially in Southern Vermont, so she’s not to be counted out if she decides to jump in. However, she’s quite conservative by Democratic standards, and I think that she might struggle to expand outside of her geographic base to get the votes she’d need to win.
Sullivan’s electoral math might be further complicated by the entry of Emilie Kornheiser, another Southern VT politico. Kornheiser is only in her fourth term in the House, but she’s already risen to become chair of the powerful (third and hopefully final obligatory POWERFUL) Ways and Means Committee and has staked out a position as a progressive voice on tax and finance issues.
Her progressive luster might have been tarnished somewhat by her involvement in last year’s education bill, which has irked many on the left, but she’s a prodigious fundraiser (she brought in $34k for a *House* race last year which is unheard of) and a famously dogged campaigner so she’ll be one to watch if she gets in. She’d also probably benefit from the Windham County Effect – Brattleboro and its surrounding towns tend to give huge margins to the home team in Democratic primaries, just ask Peter Shumlin or Becca Balint.
If the field is Ashe, Kornheiser, Sullivan, and Graeter, I’d put early money on Ashe, since he’s got the most statewide name ID, has the Chittenden County base, and will probably get a fair bit of institutional support. However, he’ll have to work for it if he wants to stay in the lead – Sullivan and especially Kornheiser are no slouches, and Graeter could be a wildcard in a year where much of the Democratic base is eager to buck the establishment. If I were to guess how this race would play out today, I’d say Ashe > Kornheiser > Sullivan > Graeter, but there’s still a long way to go, half of these people aren’t in the race yet (and might not be at all) and much could change between now and the filing deadline. Keep your opera glasses polished, folks, this will be a race to watch!
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