Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

Allow me to set the scene. Two candidates are running in the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor. The favorite to win of the two candidates is a veteran of Vermont’s political scene who has amassed an army of endorsements from the Democratic legislative caucus with impressive regional and ideological diversity, the other candidate is relative unknown, a favorite of the hundred-or-so individuals drifting between campaign jobs, consultancies, and district office posts that make up the Vermont Democratic Party apparatchik class. One of these candidates is Molly R. Gray. Now that I’ve set the scene, most informed readers will have caught on that I’m probably describing the 2020 Democratic primary for Lt. Governor. Well, dear reader, that would be incorrect. I am in fact describing the Democratic primary for Lt. Governor shaping up for this year.

Before I launch into what’s happening this year, allow me to demystify the 2020 primary. Tim Ashe, President pro tempore of the Vermont State Senate, was the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination for the lieutenant governorship. He had decent name recognition, a strong team of endorsements from his colleagues, and a powerful voter base in Chittenden County. Then came Molly Rose Gray, an Assistant Attorney General and former Peter Welch staffer, who seemingly out of nowhere stormed to victory. While Gray was relatively unknown in the public prior to her candidacy, she could depend on invaluable support from Vermont Democratic Party functionaries, elevating her to a huge upset over Senator Ashe. She went on to defeat Republican nominee Scott Milne in the general election by 7 points.

A year and a half later, Gray attempted to seek the U.S. House seat vacated by Peter Welch (who himself was seeking the Senate seat vacated by Patrick Leahy), but suffered a landslide defeat at the hands of Ashe’s successor as Senate President pro tempore, Becca Balint. But even Gray’s biggest detractors would have to admit that she was too young and too talented to not return to the political scene at some point. She bided her time, skipping the 2024 cycle altogether while leading the Vermont Afghan Alliance – a nonprofit serving Vermont’s community of Afghan refugees. Now, she has finally re-entered the scene, declaring her candidacy for her old job as Lt. Governor. Her website boasts a veritable army of endorsements including big names like Senate President pro tempore Phil Baruth and former Governor Howard Dean, but also notable political diversity spanning democratic socialists like Senator Tanya Vyhovsky to center-left party stalwarts like former House Appropriations chair Kitty Toll. Most people would view her victory as inevitable.

Yet, here comes the dark horse. Ryan McLaren, a former senior advisor to Senator Welch, announced his campaign for the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor with a video today. Like Molly Gray herself six years ago, McLaren is basically unknown to the voting public, but can count on significant connections in the Democratic Party and the offices of its statewide elected officials. The script has officially been flipped. 

This is all to say to Vermont politics watchers, don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Gray is definitely the favorite to start with, but McLaren shouldn’t be counted out. After all, we need only look to 2020 to see how a well-connected and hard-working dark horse candidate can rise to a surprising victory over a candidate once assumed to be unbeatable. I’m sure Molly Gray knows this however, because of course, she lived it. 

The elephant in the room is that there is one sizable difference between this year and 2020. Namely that there is an incumbent Lt. Governor seeking re-election, his name is John Rodgers, and he is a Republican. Whether Gray or McLaren wins the Democratic nomination, they’ll have a real fight ahead of them come November. While Rodgers will face serious headwinds from a national climate more favorable to Democrats than 2024, statewide incumbents seeking a second term in Vermont typically grow their margins of victory, and Rodgers has been on the right side of issues involving Trump’s malfeasance. Whatever happens, I expect a vigorous contest in the general election.

This article was written by David Delaney, a recent University of Vermont graduate and previous contributor to Sugaring Off. You can find more of his work regarding history and politics on his Substack.