Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

What do the July 1st campaign finance reports tell us about the state of Vermont’s hottest primary races?

Today is July 1st, the first major campaign finance deadline of the 2024 campaign cycle. The first major deadline of the campaign cycle in Vermont, anyway, where we largely maintain the quaint tradition of having campaigns that fit entirely within a single calendar year.

While money isn’t everything, especially in a state with so many political quirks, these reports could give us some indication of who has the upper hand heading into the August 13th major party primaries.

The Race for Second Banana

Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s first vice president was a crusty Texan politico named John Nance Garner (or “Cactus Jack,” to his friends). Old Cactus Jack once remarked that the vice presidency was “not worth a bucket of warm spit.” Clearly this isn’t true of Vermont’s number two office. The LG contest has seen the most action of any statewide race so far this year, with both parties facing contested primaries.

On the Democratic side, incumbent David Zuckerman of Hinesburg faces a challenge from Winooski Deputy Mayor Thomas Renner. Zuckerman, a Progressive who runs in the Democratic primary, served as lieutenant governor from 2017-2021 and again from 2023-present. Renner, a former staffer for Patrick Leahy and Becca Balint, announced a surprise run in May shortly before the primary filing deadline.

Zuckerman has carried forward $15,000 from last cycle. During this period, he raised $74,309 and spent $43,578, leaving him with about $40,000 on hand. Many of his contributions came from small donors, and his large donors include former Bernie Sanders chief strategist Jeff Weaver. His expenditures were largely on staff and consultants, which makes sense given his history of prioritizing field operations over media buys.

UPDATE: Thomas Renner’s campaign has now submitted their report. Since launching his campaign, Renner has raised $43,194 and spent $8,396, for a total of about $35,000 on hand. His donors include Burlington Democratic pols Joan Shannon and Ed Adrian, former VDP Chair Dottie Deans, Housing Commissioner Alex Farrell, former Lt. Gov. candidate Kitty Toll, and VTGOP fixtures Bruce Lisman and Richard Tarrant.

On the Republican side, noted January 6th “Stop the Steal” rally participant Gregory Thayer (I’ll note that Thayer maintains that while he was present on the grounds of the Capitol, he did not enter the building) faces former Democratic State Senator John Rodgers of Glover. Thayer has raised $2,250, mostly from himself and spent $1,732, mostly on food, gas, and printing. Rodgers has filed a no activity report.

The Senate

2024 will be a second consecutive cycle of high turnover in the Senate due to the retirements and deaths of several longtime incumbents. The marquee (obligatory marquee reference) primaries are in the Grand Isle-Chittenden District, open following the retirement of Sen. Dick Mazza of Colchester, the Caledonia District, open following the retirement of Sen. Jane Kitchel of Danville, the Windsor District, where Sen. Dick McCormack of Bethel is retiring, the Addison District, where incumbents Chris Bray of New Haven and Ruth Hardy of Middlebury face a challenge from Rep. Caleb Elder of Starksboro, and the Chittenden Central District, where the three incumbents face a primary challenge from veteran Vermont journalist and broadcaster Stewart Ledbetter of Winooski.

In Addison County, Caleb Elder has raised $7,630 and spent $6,219, leaving him with about $1,000 on hand. His donors include Anais Mitchell, the creator of the hit musical Hadestown, former Treasurer Beth Pearce, and the campaign committee of Tim Lueders-Dumont, a former candidate for Addison County State’s Attorney who is also from the Mount Abe side of the county. Sen. Hardy has raised $4,975 and spent just over $1,200, including contributions from AG Charity Clark and former Burlington City Council President Karen Paul, leaving her with about $5,000 on hand. Sen. Bray had not filed a report as of time of publishing.

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In Chittenden Central, a district containing Burlington’s Old and New North Ends, Winooski, a sliver of Colchester, and most of Essex Junction, longtime Vermont political journalist Stewart Ledbetter is running in the Democratic primary alongside the three incumbents, Philip Baruth and Martine Gulick of Burlington and Tanya Vyhovsky of Essex Junction. Ledbetter, whose father served as Commissioner of Insurance and challenged Patrick Leahy as a Republican in 1980, has raised an eye-popping $48,000, from donors including former Gov. Peter Shumlin, Sen. Brian Campion, GOP notables Richard Tarrant, Scott Milne, and Bruce Lisman, and members of several prominent Burlington-area real estate families including the Pizzagallis and Boves. He’s spent about $8,000, leaving him with about $40,000 on hand going into the last full month of the primary campaign.

Sen. Baruth, the Senate President Pro Tempore, has raised and spent a grand total of zero dollars in the tried and true tradition of members of the Senate’s Old Guard. Vyhovsky, a Progressive and Democratic Socialist who runs in the Democratic primary, has raised a little over $3,000, rolled $1,500 over from her previous campaign, and spent just $228.

Friend of the page Sen. Martine Gulick of Burlington, who narrowly beat longtime Bernie Sanders associate Erhard Mahnke in the 2022 primary, has raised $12,990 and spent $2,823, leaving her (by my estimate) with just over $12,000 on hand including the surplus from her last campaign. Many of her contributors are her relatives, and she also has received donations from New North End Councilors Mark Barlow and Sarah Carpenter. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Gulick would be the most vulnerable to a primary loss given the narrow results of the 2022 race, but she and Vyhovsky have been running a strong joint ground operation and this race is still anyone’s game.

In Caledonia County, Republican Rep. Scott Beck of St. Johnsbury faces 2022 nominee JT Dodge of Newbury. Dodge has raised $1,125 and spent no money, which pales in comparison to Beck’s $35,565 raised and $7,500 spent.

Beck received an early endorsement from Gov. Phil Scott and has received large contributions from many VTGOP notables and members of the business community, including Milne, Lisman, and Tarrant, James Pizzagalli of the Pizzagalli real estate family, and John Larkin of Larkin Realty. Beck also received a $200 contribution from retiring Democratic Sen. Brian Campion of Bennington County.

On the Democratic side in Caledonia, Amanda Cochrane, who has received Jane Kitchel’s endorsement, has raised $8,900, including a large number of small-dollar contributions, and spent $2,500, leaving her with about $6,400 on hand. Her opponent, Shawn Hallissey, had not filed a report at the time of publication.

This district is probably the VTGOP’s best opportunity to pick up a Senate seat this year, and the party establishment seems to be going all-in on Beck. It’s still early, but Beck now has a large advantage in cash on hand and name ID, over both his primary and likely general election opponents, so I’m moving the Caledonia senate seat from Too Early to Tell to Lean Republican in the Vibes-Based Forecast.

In Grand Isle County, appointed incumbent Andy Julow of North Hero has raised just over $8,000, largely in loans from himself, and spent almost all of it. He also received a $250 contribution from former Speaker Mitzi Johnson of Grand Isle. Julie Hulburd, the chair of the Colchester Democratic Committee, has not filed a report as of time of publication.

Whoever emerges from this primary in this district will face the mustachioed Rep. Patrick Brennan of Colchester in the general election. Brennan has raised $3,550 and spent a hair over $4,000 in this reporting period.

In Windsor County, incumbents Alison Clarkson of Woodstock and friend of the page Becca White of Hartford are running as a slate. Clarkson is rolling forward an impressive $28,000 surplus from her previous campaign but has raised only $300 this cycle. Joe Major, the Hartford Town Treasurer and the leading candidate to replace McCormack, has raised $7,700, about $5,000 of which he loaned to himself.

The House

There appears to be less drama on the House side than on the Senate side this year, especially since the VTGOP are focusing their efforts on breaking the Democratic supermajority in the Senate. There are three hotly contested primaries that I’m focused on, including two “clown car” primaries with crowded fields.

The most prominent Democrat facing a primary challenge is friend of the page Rep. Emilie Kornheiser of Brattleboro, the chair of the powerful (obligatory powerful reference in relation to a committee) Ways and Means Committee. Kornheiser has raised an impressive $13,920 and spent only $3,876 thus far, leaving her with a formidable war chest (obligatory war chest reference) headed into the primary. Her donors include many of her House colleagues as well as AG Charity Clark and Speaker Jill Krowinski’s chief of staff Conor Kennedy. Kornheiser’s primary challenger, Amanda Ellis-Thurber, has raised $8,600 thus far and has spent about $4,000, leaving about $4,000 on hand.

In Chittenden-13, a district based in the South End of Burlington, Rep. Tiff Bluemle is seeking re-election alongside three challengers who seek to replace Rep. Gabrielle Stebbins. Bluemle, a prolific donor to Democratic candidates around the state in her own right, has raised $9,300 and spent $3,234. Bram Kleppner, the former CEO of Danforth Pewter, narrowly leads the fundraising pack with $9,743 raised and $1,807 spent (a fair bit of which seems to have been on Instagram ads if the state of my feed is anything to go by). Kleppner’s donors include Ernie and Patricia Pomerleau of the Pomerleau Real Estate family, and outgoing Rep. Stebbins is serving as his campaign treasurer. Dale Azaria, a lawyer with the Conservation Law Foundation, is in a close third position with $9,235 raised. Larry Lewack, a Progressive running in the Democratic primary who serves as Charlotte Town Planner, has raised $500 in loans to himself.

Bennington-2, which includes North Bennington and much of Bennington Town, is home to another clown-car primary (by Vermont standards, anyway), where three candidates are running alongside incumbent Timothy Corcoran II. to succeed Rep. Dane Whitman, who is not seeking re-election. Corcoran appears to not even have a committee on file with the Secretary of State, having raised and spent a grand total of zero dollars in his last six elections. However, between Corcoran fils and Corcoran pere, Corcorans have easily been winning one of the Bennington house seats for more than forty years so it seems unlikely that he’ll lose this time around.

The other three contenders are Leon Johnson, a longtime schoolboard member, Asher Edelson, the chair of the Bennington Democrats, and Will Greer, the Secretary of the Vermont Democratic Party who came very close to winning the Democratic primary for Bennington High Bailiff in 2022. Edelson has raised $1,745 thus far, with all four of his contributions above $500 coming from out of state (three from Florida, one from New Hampshire). Neither Johnson nor Greer had filed reports as of publication.

Conclusion

There’s still almost a month and a half before the primaries, and a lot could change between now and then. However, if I were a betting man, these are the picks I’d make:

• Lt. Gov: Now that we’ve seen reports from both candidates, I’m comfortable giving Zuckerman the edge here. While he’s historically had a ceiling of 45-47% in contested primaries, he has a slight lead in cash on hand and a large lead in name ID. While I wouldn’t count out Thomas Renner just yet, it’s worth considering that at this point in the 2022 primary, Kitty Toll had $90,000 on hand and was already spending big on TV advertising. As I said at the beginning, money isn’t everything in Vermont politics, but it sure helps in getting your name and brand out there.
• Addison Senate: All three candidates are actively campaigning and Elder is off to an early lead in fundraising but is burning through money fast. Addison County tends to be geographically polarized in Democratic primaries, especially with regard to the towns in Elder’s district. He’ll need to make big inroads in Middlebury and the 22A corridor between now and August if he’s to eke out a win over Hardy or Bray.
• Chittenden Central Senate: Baruth appears to be relying on the power of incumbency to coast to victory, which has worked pretty well for him historically. Ledbetter has a big advantage in cash on hand and has been on TV in nearly every Vermont household over the last 40 years, but Vyhovsky and Gulick are strong campaigners who have found their niches in Montpelier during their first term. I expect that Ledbetter will probably win one of the Democratic slots, it would be interesting to see what would happen if Vyhovsky ran on the Progressive line were she to lose the primary.
• Caledonia Senate: Cochrane and Beck will almost certainly win their respective primaries, and I’d consider Beck an early favorite for November.
• Grand Isle Senate: Even without Hulburd’s fundraising report, I’d consider her a slight favorite in the primary given that Colchester casts about 3/4 of the vote in this district. Most of Julow’s fundraising thus far has been from himself and he’s been spending it rapidly. Were Julow to win the primary, I’d consider Brennan a favorite to win the general, given that Brennan has a base in Colchester and Julow has lost his last two House races in the Islands.
• Windham-4 House: I’d consider Kornheiser the favorite here. The only House Democrat to lose a primary last cycle was Mike Yantachka of Charlotte, who was primaried for his vote against Proposition 5 (the Reproductive Liberty Amendment), and even then, it was close. While the administration has made a lot of hay over the yield bill, I don’t think being its principal architect is going to be anywhere near as toxic in a Democratic primary electorate as a vote against Prop 5 was. Also, Ellis-Thurber has burned through more of her cash than Kornheiser has.
• Chittenden-13 House: I’d call Bluemle and Kleppner the early favorites but it’s still anyone’s game.
• Bennington-2: To be perfectly honest, I don’t have enough knowledge about the state of this race to make a prediction. If there are any sages of Bennington politics amongst you, please let me know your thoughts on this one!

And that’s a wrap on my first long-form article! If you made it to the end, I thank you for your time and hope you enjoyed it! Please feel free to share constructive feedback. If you disagree with my takes, that’s fine with me, I don’t claim to be an expert or unbiased.