Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

The second district we’re highlighting is Caledonia-1, a single-member district that wraps around a bend in the Connecticut River on Vermont’s eastern border. The district’s three towns from north to south are Waterford, Barnet, and Ryegate. This district is full of flavorful tidbits, but here are a few of my favorites that I’ve come across. Waterford is the setting of the 2000 comedy film State and Main, which starred, among others, embattled part-time Vermonter Alec Baldwin. The famous French diver Jacques Cousteau made his first dive in the cerulean waters of Barnet’s Lake Harvey, just north of the village of Mosquitoville. Barnet is also home to the Fairbanks family, who eventually moved upriver to St. J. to manufacture the world’s first platform scales, become governors, and establish their namesake museum and planetarium. Now that you’ve all had a chance to absorb some local history, on to the main event!

“But Matthew,” I hear you cry, “how is this a competitive district? The Democratic candidate got 70% of the vote last time (or 90% depending on how you count blank ballots)!” Well, dear reader, this seat was one of a trio of districts in conservative areas of the state that Democrats were able to easily pick up in 2022 because the Republicans couldn’t find candidates for them.

The Democratic incumbents in the other two seats, Joseph Andriano in Addison-Rutland and David Templeman in Orleans-3, aren’t seeking re-election this year and have no Democratic potential successors, making those auto-flips into the GOP column. In CAL-1, however, incumbent Bobby Farlice-Rubio is seeking re-election, and this time, he has a Republican opponent in Debra Lynn-Powers of Waterford, setting up what could be one of the closest House races of the year.

Like many house districts in the Northeast Kingdom, this seat is a lot bluer federally than it is down-ballot. Joe Biden won all three towns with over 50% of the vote in 2020. However, in 2022, both Phil Scott and Joe Benning swept the district, and even longtime incumbent State Senator Jane Kitchel ran behind her district-wide average in Ryegate and Waterford.

The recent House elections in this district don’t offer us much in terms of useful data. In 2020, Dylan Stetson, a Progressive challenger to incumbent Rep. Marcia Martel lost all three towns by wide margins. In 2012, the last truly close election in this district, Martel’s predecessor Leigh Larocque fended off a spirited challenge from Democrat Claudette Sortino by a little more than 100 votes. Sortino won a healthy margin in Ryegate and came close in Barnet, but got blown out in Waterford.

While all three towns in this district are about the same size, Barnet seems to consistently have the highest voter turnout, which is good news for Farlice-Rubio since that’s his home turf. Waterford, on the other hand, usually gives the highest margins to Republicans, which Lynn-Powers might be able to stretch even wider than usual because of her home field advantage. The path to a victory for Farlice-Rubio is tricky but clear: he’ll need to juice turnout in Ryegate to run up his margin, win his hometown of Barnet, and keep Lynn-Powers from blowing him out of the water in Waterford. Lynn-Powers’s path to victory is probably exactly the inverse: run up the margin in Waterford, hold down Farlice-Rubio in Barnet or even win it outright, and hope that turnout in Ryegate remains low.

This district’s Vibes-Based Forecast rating is Tossup. Farlice-Rubio has the advantage of incumbency, Lynn-Powers has the advantage of the district’s historical lean. They’re about even in cash-on-hand right now, although Lynn-Powers has been essentially self-funding and spending much faster. Since both the national and state environments have improved for Democrats in the last couple of months, I expect Farlice-Rubio’s chances might have improved, but the materialization of an anti-Democratic or anti-incumbent rip-current in the NEK could push Lynn-Powers over the finish line. This will be one to watch.

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