Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

[Note from Matthew: This article was written as a guest submission by longtime friend of the page and up-and-coming political analyst David Delaney. Please enjoy!]

The Vermont gubernatorial elections of 2006 and 2018 are strikingly similar. It is sometimes said that “history does not repeat itself, but it does occasionally rhyme.” Well in this case, history really sang. In both elections, a Republican governor of a moderate persuasion sought reelection against Democratic opponents with backgrounds in the energy field. Both elections took place during the midterm cycles of unpopular Republican Presidents, and both campaigns were generally understated, quiet events with expected outcomes. The really shocking commonalities however, can be found in the results. 

In 2006, Republican Jim Douglas received 148,014 votes (56.3%) to Democrat Scudder Parker’s 108,090 votes (41.1%). In 2018, Phil Scott received 151,261 (55.2%) to Christine Hallquist’s 110,335 (40.3%). The vote totals are almost exactly the same, the turnout as well, and the margins of victory, 15.2% and 14.9%, are mere three tenths of a percentage point apart. What’s more, the county results were the same. Both Republicans won every county save Windham County, home of Brattleboro.

So, dear reader, as I am sure you are wondering, what is the use of this information? Even you, political junkies that you are, are surely wondering what use this utterly irrelevant factoid provides to us. Well, I will tell you. The common circumstances and results of these elections, the “even playing field” as it were, gives us ample opportunity to examine how the political geography of Vermont has shifted in the 12 years between 2006 and 2018. While this is not a perfect or examination of geography today, it may be instructive in examining the present day political landscape. This article will seek to explore these shifts and changes in the Green Mountain landscape.

Chittenden County Goes Woke

Chittenden County is by far the most dense and populous county in the state. Numbering at approximately 150,000 people, the county is the home of Vermont’s tallest building, its only Target, and its only major airport. The county is characterized by an urban core in Burlington surrounded by a ring of suburbs and exurbs including Winooski, South Burlington, Shelburne, Williston, Colchester, and more. It is some of the most intensely Democratic turf in the state, and has been for decades. In comfortable statewide Republican wins such as 2006 and 2018, however, it was carried by the Republicans, but the results from 2006 to 2018 show a subtle yet apparent contrast.

In 2006, Jim Douglas put up a very impressive countywide number of 56%, about equal to his statewide number of 56.3, meaning that the deeply liberal county voted in line with the state as a whole. Douglas’s strength becomes even more apparent at the town level. Douglas put up a strong performance in Burlington itself, coming in at 38.5%, and a performance in the mid-60s or high-50s in much of the outlying suburbia. He outright carried Winooski with 52.9%, which was a surprise given Winooski’s liberal reputation and history as one of the most Democratic towns in the state.

In 2018, Phil Scott performed very well for a Republican, but not as well as Douglas. Scott carried 50.6% of the vote countywide, meaning the county voted well to the left of the state as a whole. On the town level, it’s easy to see why. In general, Scott’s vote share is about 5% smaller than Douglas in the exurbs of Burlington, and a whole 7.2% lower in Burlington where Scott received 31.3%. Needless to say, Scott did not carry a majority in liberal Winooski. In fact, he got a comparatively measly 37.8%. The only exceptions to this underperformance are in outlying, rural towns like Westford and Underhill, where Scott performed better than Douglas, which may be instructive later when discussing rural Vermont.

What happened in Chittenden County? There are three possible explanations available to us. One that relies on changing candidates, one that relies on changing populations, and one that relies on changing attitudes. This will be a useful way to analyze going forward. 

Let us first discount the possibility that this is a matter of Jim Douglas and Phil Scott, or indeed Scudder Parker and Christine Hallquist attracting very different voters in this area. Douglas receiving better numbers in the state’s urban core may lead one to surmise that Douglas had a more progressive reputation than Phil Scott, and therefore added more Chittenden County votes to his total. But if you talk to VTPoli insiders, what they’ll tell you is that Douglas is actually more conservative than Scott. The idea that Scott being more conservative lost him support in liberal Chittenden County seems unsupported.

For the case of Chittenden County, its population has grown by approximately a net 15,000 between 2006 and 2018. Burlington in particular has grown by about 4,000. Burlington has long attracted many progressive New Yorkers and Massachusettsans (my editor tells me that “Massholes” is offensive) [editor’s note: correct] to its liberal shores, so it may be easy to simply chalk this up to more flatlanders. However, it is also worthwhile to examine the changing political coalitions in Chittenden County.

In 2004, George W. Bush got 34.01% of the vote in Chittenden County. In 2020, Donald Trump got 21.25% of the vote in Chittenden County. This is not to compare Jim Douglas to Bush and Phil Scott to Trump, not remotely. I am merely suggesting the nationwide political events between these two political eras reshaped partisan coalitions in the state. The shift of the national Republican Party from Reagan-Bush “three-legged stool” conservatism to the right-wing populism of Donald Trump certainly gained some new fans, but certainly not the college-educated, secular, and culturally progressive voters that make up much of Chittenden County. Who amongst us isn’t familiar with at least one former Republican voter who now posts memes about the “orange man” on Facebook? These coalition shifts trickle down over time, even down to gubernatorial elections where the candidates themselves are strangers to the national parties they represent.

Home County Advantages

Vermont is unique amongst states in the country in that candidates for office in Vermont have their towns of residence indicated underneath their name on the ballot. It’s indicative of the parochial, local-oriented nature of the state. One’s own family and community connections can absolutely be relevant in an election. One consistent trend between the 2006 and 2018 elections is the presence of the “home county” factor. 

For Washington County, this is glaringly obvious from the map alone. Look at all that blue in 2006, it’s hardly there in 2018, and of a much lighter shade. That’s no surprise. Phil Scott grew up in Barre and has lived in the area practically his entire life, including representing Washington County for ten years in the Vermont State Senate. Considering that, his 55.4% in traditionally Democratic Washington County compared to Douglas’ 51.4% makes a lot of sense.

Jim Douglas is from Massachusetts originally, but since receiving his BA in Russian Studies at Middlebury College and getting elected to the State House at the same time, he has been a fixture of the Addison County community. Douglas’s superior performance compared to Scott is less obvious on the map, but his topline figure of 57.1% is demonstrably higher than Scott’s 54.9%. In deeply liberal Middlebury itself this difference is accentuated further. Douglas received 49.4%, whereas Scott received 41.5%.

Despite the realities of nationalization and polarization in our modern day politics, Vermont’s parochial spirit remains alive and well.

The Reddening Kingdom

Pictured: 2006 and 2018 Northeast Kingdom Results by Town 

The “Northeast Kingdom” is composed of Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties. The name originates with Senator George Aiken, who is said to have coined it while fishing in Essex County. The region is predominantly rural, with a few market towns such as Newport, St. Johnsbury, and Lyndon. The region is historically Republican, even for Vermont. Until very recently however, Democrats could still count on a pretty strong local presence. This has changed however, with every Senate and all but two House seats in the Kingdom being held by Republicans after the 2024 wipeout. On the national level, Kamala Harris received the worst numbers for any Democrat running for President in 24 years. The early signs of the Northeast Kingdom’s Republican trend can be found in our comparison.

In 2006, Scudder Parker’s deep Caledonia County roots could not deliver him the region. He received 35.1% in Caledonia, 34.0% in Orleans, and 28.7% in Essex. However, this performance holds up decently well compared to Hallquist’s figures, which were 32.8% in Caledonia, 30.3% in Orleans, and 22.8% in Essex. Parker’s overperformance, and the rightward shift of the Kingdom, becomes more apparent at the town level. Take Parker’s own Danville, where he received 36.1%, and Hallquist only managed 30.9%. Perhaps Lowell in Orleans County, deep in the heart of dairy country is a better example. Parker received 35.2%, and Hallquist could only scratch out 24%.

Now, we can approach this with the same three lenses we used to approach Chittenden County. The population of the NEK basically stayed stable between 2006 and 2018, or even declined based on the figures. So, conservative internal migration of the like that has happened in Montana or Florida is unlikely. Regarding candidates, it is possible that Hallquist’s underperformance is solely owing to Parker’s local roots, but regarding it as the only reason seems like reductive analysis.

Unlike in Chittenden County, we cannot rely on straightforward, long-running national trends. The Northeast Kingdom may be moving strongly to the right these days, but that wasn’t true as recently as 20 years ago. When George W. Bush swapped his reputation as a “compassionate conservative” in exchange for pushing social security privatization and the agenda of the Christian Right, he lost the support of many upper New Englanders who had supported him in 2000. In fact, the next two Democratic nominees did successively better in the Kingdom after the 2000 election. Barack Obama even won Essex County outright in both 2008 and 2012.

But on the town level, there was certainly emerging polarization between the market towns and rural hinterlands in the period we’re analyzing here. Take St. Johnsbury, the largest town in the NEK. Parker received 33.9% and Hallquist actually received a greater vote share at 36%. Meanwhile, in tiny Victory, Parker received 26% and Hallquist received 10%. Or perhaps Charleston, where Parker received 36.3% and Hallquist received 28.7%. In general, in larger towns, the swing away from the Democrats is weaker or even does not exist at all. It seems that in addition to Hallquist lacking Parker’s regional roots, the Northeast Kingdom has become victim to the educational polarization which has taken root in our national politics. In 2024, this became unavoidably obvious, but the seeds of the Democrats 2024 Kingdom wipeout (save for holdouts around certain larger towns) may be found in our analysis.

Concluding

When the history of early 21st century Vermont politics is written, it is unlikely that the 2006 or 2018 gubernatorial elections will receive much attention. Even for the victors, these elections will be brief footnotes in the story of their long gubernatorial tenures. As for the defeated, Christine Hallquist may be rightly noted for her trailblazing accomplishment as the first transgender nominee for statewide office, but her campaign itself, and that of Scudder Parker will be unlikely to receive much discussion. 

Clearly, I believe these elections, and these candidates, to be worthy of discussion. Rarely do you find results of such striking similarity at such a distance from one another. As a result, these elections stand as signposts for us political nerds to analyze how voter coalitions have changed. In doing so, we can see how Vermont has mirrored events on the national level. Even Vermont, which prides itself on its independence, is not free from the nation’s political climate. As the storms of educational and cultural polarization pass over America, so they also come over Vermont. But Vermont also, in typical Vermont fashion, still hangs on stubbornly to local connections, as evidenced by Home County Advantages. In some places, knowing one’s neighbors is still more important than national narratives or whatever’s on Twitter (no, I’m not calling it X).

Perhaps in 2030, after another 12 year interval, another moderate Republican governor will win a 15-point reelection, and we will have the opportunity to put down another signpost and analyze yet again. 

Note on Sources

All election statistics are obtained from Dave Leip’s Election Atlas or the Vermont Secretary of State’s Office. The maps are obtained from Wikimedia Commons.

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