Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

Hello, loyal Sugaring Off readers! It’s been a minute. Things have been busy with school and work, but we’re back to indulge in some wild speculation about what the looming 2026 campaign season might have in store. I don’t have any more inside information than the average observant layman, these are just my observations and theories, presented for your reading and thinking enjoyment.

How now, Philip! Whither wander you?

The biggest question on everyone’s mind is whether Governor Phil Scott will seek re-election. There are a couple of scenarios that I could see playing out here.

First, Scott is able to get some version of his education finance reform proposal through the legislature either this year (which seems increasingly doubtful) or next. He decides that it’s time to rest on his laurels having SOLVED the greatest political crisis in Vermont history, and announces his retirement. Knowing him, he’d hold off until the last possible minute to announce to avoid lame-ducking himself, which would set off a mid-May mad dash in which every ambitious pol in the state and their mother and their dog would be racing to collect signatures to get on the primary ballot.

Second scenario: Scott isn’t able to get any major reforms through the legislature despite his bolstered Republican minorities. He decides to wash his hands of the whole thing, beat his swords into plowshares, and go home to Berlin to spend the rest of his days at Thunder Road or out constructing things. Things play out as above from there.

Third scenario: Scott either does/doesn’t get major reforms through the legislature and decides he wants to push for more, so he runs for re-election and runs the 2024 playbook all over again, camping out in Democratic districts with an eye to flipping control of one (or both) chambers of the legislature. If the Democrats nominate another severely under-resourced candidate in the vein of Esther Charlestin, Scott likely sets an all-time vote-share record and the Democratic majority in the Senate (and maybe the House, too) is in severe jeopardy, provided that the GOP can land solid candidates. Sugaring Off contributor David Delaney correctly points out that the national political environment may confusticate Scott’s ability to re-run the ’24 playbook and that blowback to the Trump administration may end the GOP’s dreams of capturing a chamber, but I didn’t see the wave that happened in ’24 coming either so I’m not ruling anything out this far in advance.

Were Scott to run for re-election, I could see a serious Democrat jumping into the race. The two names that come to mind immediately are State Treasurer Mike Pieciak and former Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger. Both of them have a demonstrated ability to raise money and teams of political professionals in their orbits who would be able to run a credible race. Even were they to lose to Scott, by running the first competitive Democratic gubernatorial campaign in almost a decade I think they’d be teeing themselves up to be the presumptive nominee when Scott does finally retire. Pieciak certainly seems to be gearing up for a run regardless of what Scott does: he’s been showing up *everywhere* around the state doing events and ran by far the most active Democratic statewide campaign last year despite not having serious opposition.

However, let’s say Scott does retire. As I said, a whole host of ambitious Democrats will be chomping at the bit to succeed him, much as happened in 2010 when Jim Douglas retired. Pieciak and Weinberger would almost certainly jump in, and I could see them being joined by AG Charity Clark and SOS Sarah Copeland Hanzas. I could also see Rebecca Holcombe, current state representative and former gubernatorial candidate and Secretary of Education, taking a look at this race.

Clark, Pieciak, and Copeland Hanzas have all been finding themselves in the spotlight lately as they respond to the actions of the Trump administration, but Pieciak almost certainly starts as the favorite in this field. He has a potent combination of a large WAR CHEST (obligatory WAR CHEST reference), ubiquity at Democratic functions around the state, and he’s enlisted the services of Natalie Silver, the architect of Becca Balint’s 2022 primary victory.

On the Republican side, the first name that comes to mind is LG John Rodgers, who benefitted from Scott’s endorsement in the ’24 campaign. However, the word around the State House is that Rodgers is not exactly deep in the Governor’s counsel, so I don’t think it’s a guarantee that our mustachioed second banana would be the anointed successor. Rodgers himself has also indicated that he’d prefer not to run for governor in ’26, but I’m sure people will be asking him to consider it (especially Messrs. Ehlers and Toof who would no doubt like to keep raking in consulting fees). I think Senator Scott Beck of Caledonia County would take a long, hard look at the gov race, especially if education finance doesn’t go anywhere since that’s long been a pet issue of his and the corner office would give him a powerful bully pulpit to address it.

Former Franklin County Senator Corey Parent would also be an interesting candidate – he’s very young (only 34) and was once considered a “rising star” in the GOP. However, since leaving office, he’s gone to work for Leonine Public Affairs, a large Montpelier government relations and lobbying firm, and the label of “MONTPELIER LOBBYIST” might be too much for a GOP primary electorate to swallow. I could also see an outside chance of Governor Scott’s chief of staff, Jason Gibbs, throwing his hat in the ring. “Governor Gibbs” as he is sometimes called (though not to his face, of course) has been a key figure in the Scott administration since day one and was the GOP nominee for Secretary of State in 2010. He doesn’t have the advantage of a geographic political base like some of the other potential candidates, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

There’s also a decent shot that someone from the MAGA wing of the VTGOP would jump in. Keep an eye on your Gregorys Thayer, Russes Ingalls, and DEPLOYS Malloy. While the governor and his posse would almost certainly put their thumb on the scale to thwart a MAGA nominee for governor (as such a nomination would doom any chance the GOP has of holding the corner office without Scott on the ballot), it’s possible that one of them could break through in a crowded field.

What comes next?

If Governor Scott announces that he’s not seeking re-election, expect the immediate commencement of a game of Montpelier Musical Chairs. Vermont’s (almost) unique two-year terms means that if any of the current statewide officeholders jump in, contests for their seats will open up as well.

LG Contenders

If Rodgers jumps into the gubernatorial contest, I think there’ll be contested races on both sides to succeed him. On the Democratic side, former 2024 candidate and Winooski City Councilor Thomas Renner might take a look at this race. He put up a respectable showing against then-incumbent David Zuckerman in 2022 for having got into the race with almost zero statewide name ID, and an open seat might give him a better shot at winning. I think that Senator Becca White of Windsor County would be a formidable candidate, especially in a primary. She’s the youngest Democrat in the Senate, an energetic campaigner, and has a strong geographic base in the Upper Valley, which punches heavily above its weight in Democratic primaries. I’ve also been hearing rumbles about Washington County Senator Anne Watson, who recently signed onto a letter from the Progressive Party calling on more people to run for office as Progs. Could this be a sign that were she to run, she’d follow the David Zuckerman model of seeking both the Dem and Prog nominations and listing the Prog line first?

If I were former Democratic Rep. Katherine Sims I’d also be taking a look at the LG contest. While Sims lost by a wider-than-expected margin in her bid to succeed Bobby Starr in the Senate last year, I don’t think we’ve seen the last of her on the political stage. In a crowded primary field with multiple candidates fighting for votes in the Connecticut River Valley and Washington and Chittenden Counties, it might be possible for her to reassemble the Kitty Toll coalition and clinch a plurality win thanks to strong margins in the NEK.

Speaking of Zuckerman, it’s also possible that he could make a comeback bid. If he jumps in, I think the path to victory for a White or Watson becomes very narrow as they’d all be competing in the same small-p progressive lane. Speaking of comeback bids, I’m also hearing rumbles that Molly Gray might be mulling another run for LG, four years after her loss of the ’22 U.S. House primary to Becca Balint. Gray has largely been in the political wilderness since her defeat in 2022 but I assume that much of the network that propelled her to the LG’s office in 2020 could still reassemble for her in 2026, especially if she’s the only candidate in the center-left lane.

On the Republican side, I expect that two-time former candidate Greg Thayer would throw his hat in the ring once again and sew up the MAGA lane. I could also see Corey Parent, Casey Toof, or a similar, younger, Republican from the Phil Scott wing making a bid here. Even if Rodgers runs again, he’s almost certain to face a primary challenge from somewhere in MAGA-world given the social media opprobrium he’s faced for his criticisms of President Trump.

Other Races/People To Look Out For

State Auditor Doug Hoffer has already said that he’s not running in 2026. It seems clear that he’s picked former Senate President Pro Tempore Tim Ashe as his anointed successor, given that he tapped Ashe to be his deputy after the latter lost his 2020 bid for LG to Molly Gray. However, I wouldn’t call Ashe a shoo-in. Hoffer’s former primary challenger and former Dorset State Rep.-turned-Mayor of Newport Linda Joy Sullivan could well make another bid.

There are two other people on the Democratic side that I could see making a run for higher office, although my crystal ball is a little foggy as to where exactly they’d end up. Rep. Emilie Kornheiser of Brattleboro has been at the forefront of the tax reform conversation in her role as chair of House Ways and Means. The Windham County Senate seats won’t be open anytime soon but with one (and possibly both) of the state’s fiscally oriented statewide offices coming vacant she might spot an opening to move up.

I’m also watching former Bernie Sanders advisor and sociologist Nikhil Goyal with a keen eye. Dr. Goyal has achieved almost Pieciakesque ubiquity at political functions around the state, showing up to town halls and rallies and building name recognition with the Democratic activist base. I’m not sure if he’s gearing up to run for something, but if he is, he’s going about it the right way.

On the Republican side, I’m very curious to see where Rep. Ashley Bartley of Fairfax goes next. She currently serves as the vice chair of the House Housing and General Affairs Committee and has distinguished herself as one of her party’s leading voices on housing issues. She’s conservative enough to not be anathema to the Republican base but has moderate enough vibes to be intriguing to a statewide electorate.

The Progressive Party may also have a tough lift ahead in this election. They need to notch at least 5% in one statewide contest to maintain major party status, and as of right now it doesn’t look like they’ll have David Zuckerman on the general election ballot to get there. If I were them, I’d target one of the “row offices” (Treasurer, AG, SoS, or Auditor) with all of my resources to try to get to 5%, rather than running a full statewide slate as they’ve promised/threatened to do in the last year or so. If they run a full slate, they’ll have to disperse their resources across six contests (seven if they field a candidate for Congress as well), at least two of which are almost certain to draw huge amounts of spending in which it will be difficult for them to compete.

And that’s all I have to say on 2026, at least for right now! What are your thoughts? Are you a potential candidate who’s miffed that you weren’t included? Who are you looking at for 2026? Sound off in the comments!

*More episodes of From the Sugar Shack will hopefully be coming out in the next month! Stay tuned.

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