Sugaring Off: Vermont Politics and History, Plain and Simple

The Vermont Democratic Party has a problem. Despite the fact that Vermont was Vice President Kamala Harris’s best state (with apologies to the people of Washington, D.C.) in the 2024 election, we just can’t seem to find a candidate willing to step forward and run against the ever-popular Governor Phil Scott. Since his first victory 2016, we have waged weaker and weaker campaigns against him every two years. As a result, the Democratic vote share for governor has declined precipitously, to the point where the Democratic nominees for Governor of West Virginia and North Dakota got higher vote percentages than the unfunded, unstaffed, and virtually non-existent campaign of our 2024 nominee, Esther Charlestin.

As a Democrat, this is embarrassing. Phil Scott may be popular and well-liked, but he is not invincible. Last year, 64% of Vermont voters cast their ballots for the Democratic presidential ticket in an election where Democrats lost the nationwide popular vote for the first time in twenty years. It should not be this hard to find a credible candidate who is willing to step up and run for the top job.

It’s not as though we are lacking for ambitious pols. It is an open secret that at least two of our current statewide office holders (fine Democrats who did their part for down-ballot candidates last year) are priming themselves to run for governor the moment Phil Scott announces his retirement. Given how well this legislative session went for the Governor, I don’t see next year being the year he hangs up his hat. However, I think that the current national environment and the gov’s failure to respond to the excesses of the Trump administration presents a real opportunity for a Democratic candidate to raise a serious amount of money, run a serious campaign, and make a serious case for Democratic values. Here’s my pitch for a real Democratic campaign in 2026:

1. The governor’s numbers are soft. Do people like him? Sure. Do they respect his leadership during COVID? Almost certainly. However, Vermonters haven’t seen a staffed and well-funded campaign against him since 2020. They almost certainly haven’t seen a negative ad against him since then, and possibly not since 2016 which was the last cycle to draw outside spending from the Democratic Governors’ Association. Former Montana Senator Jon Tester had very high approval numbers for a Democrat in a red state in 2023, and he lost by seven points last year. It’s amazing what spending money on ads and a campaign can do to an elected official’s popularity. Of course, the Tester-Scott comparison is hardly apples-to-apples, but my point stands: if you campaign against a crossover incumbent in a serious way, their numbers will go down. Enough to win? Maybe not. Enough to give him a real scare and get him to retire the next go-round? Possible.

2. Running a real race puts you in a strong position when Scott retires. I understand the caution of ambitious Democrats who think they’ve only got one shot at the top job and that if they run and lose to Scott, they’ll have wasted it. Historically, Vermont hasn’t been kind to people making comeback bids for top statewide office (with the exceptions of Peter Welch and Dick Snelling). However, as a Democratic primary voter, activist, and operative, I’d gladly vote and organize for someone who put in the hard work of travelling around the state talking to voters, supporting down-ballot candidates, and making the case for Democratic values in a hard campaign and then came back for another go-round in two or four years over someone who chose to bide their time while the party marched deeper into electoral oblivion. I know that there are many Democratic flacks around the state who feel the same way. 

Especially for would-be candidates who aren’t already statewide figures, running next year is a great way to build name ID and a network of supporters around the state. A retired or former elected official who *doesn’t* have long-term political ambitions could also run a strong campaign and be beloved by the party as the elder statesperson who stepped up when the party needed a champion.

3. Vermonters deserve (and Democrats need) a real choice and a real contrast. Governor Scott may be a moderate by the standards of the national Republican party, but there’s still a lot of daylight between him and Democratic voters on a host of issues, including climate, healthcare, progressive taxation, public education, and the list goes on. Democratic candidates were completely exposed to the Governor’s attacks last year with no message guidance from their own leadership until late in the campaign. A serious candidate who’s able to make our differences with the Governor clear in debates, forums, and public appearances could provide cover for our down-ballot candidates and lift up our coordinated campaign with a strong, top-down message. To my handful of Republican readers, you should want a strong Democratic campaign as well! It will give you a chance to sell the record of this administration that you’re so proud of on a much bigger stage and make a real case for Republican values in the nation’s most Democratic state.

4. Scott isn’t a #Resistance icon like he was in 2017. In 2017, Governor Scott was a vocal opponent of the Trump administration’s most egregious actions. However, during Trump 2.0, we’ve heard crickets from the Pavilion on protecting Vermonters from Trump’s cuts to Medicaid, Food Stamps, and FEMA. Just today, he handed over the personal data of every SNAP recipient in the state to the Trump administration. These are real vulnerabilities for him, and I think a strong campaign could needle him on these and sink his numbers (see point one).

5. There’s always money in the ResistLib stand. When former Governor Howard Dean bowed out of a rumored comeback bid last year, one of the things he expressed was that it would be difficult to raise the money needed to beat Phil Scott. That is probably true. I’ve heard seasoned political operatives estimate the cost of running a winning campaign near $10 million, which is an eye-popping sum for a Vermont campaign. However, it would be hard to raise less money than Esther Charlestin, who brought in a mere $56,000 during her campaign last year and was outraised by multiple candidates for State Senate. By contrast, Brenda Siegel raised $187,000 in 2022, David Zuckerman pulled in $700,000 in 2020, and Christine Hallquist raised $600,000 in 2018. It is possible to raise enough money against Phil Scott to hire staff and run ads if you can demonstrate that you’re running a serious race. Plus, next year, the Democratic donor base around the country will be fired up and jonesing for places to send their money to. An effective digital fundraising program could tap into a nationwide donor pool who might not even know that Vermont *has* a Republican governor. You might not be able to raise enough to win, but you sure can raise enough to make a real go of it.

So there’s my pitch for giving Phil Scott a real race next year. If he chooses to retire, I’m sure there will be no shortage of qualified candidates vying to succeed him. But I maintain that the possible rewards of just trying to beat him if he runs again outweighs the risk of losing. Certainly it’s preferable to having another non-campaign at the top of the ticket. I’ll also caveat that the state and national parties need to invest in this race in a way they haven’t done in a long time if it’s going to be at all competitive. That lack of investment has hurt our previous nominees. For that to happen, though, we need a candidate with a campaign who can demonstrate that they’ve got what it takes to go toe-to-toe with Scott in the arena.

Below is a non-exhaustive list of people who I think would be good candidates (who haven’t nobly lost to Phil Scott already) and could run a serious race. I will gladly go to work to help elect any of them, or, frankly, somebody not on this list who is a) a Democrat with strong values and a good moral compass, b) has a pulse, and c) is willing to do hard work of raising money and campaigning.

Former electeds who could run a strong race without fear of harming their future aspirations:

• Former Governor Howard Dean (Burlington)
• Former Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine (Richmond)
• Former Speaker Shap Smith (Morristown)
• Former Secretary of State Deb Markowitz (Montpelier)
• Former Attorney General TJ Donovan (South Burlington)
• Former Speaker Mitzi Johnson (South Hero)
• Former Senator Matt Dunne (Hartland)
• Former Representative Carl Demrow (Corinth)
• Former Representative Tim Briglin (Thetford)
• Former Representative Robin Chesnut-Tangerman (Middletown Springs)
• Former Representative Caleb Elder (Lincoln)
• Former Representative Kiah Morris (Bennington)
• Former Representative Kitty Toll (Danville)

People still in the game who really ought to consider running:

• Treasurer Mike Pieciak (Winooski)
• Attorney General Charity Clark (Williston)
• Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas (Bradford)
• Former Mayor Miro Weinberger (Burlington)
• Former Senate President Pro Tempore Tim Ashe (Burlington)
• Senator Becca White (Hartford)
• Senator Thomas Chittenden (South Burlington)
• Senator Anne Watson (Montpelier)
• Senator Joe Major (Hartford)
• Senator Martine Larocque Gulick (Burlington)
• Representative Rebecca Holcombe (Norwich)
• Deputy Mayor Thomas Renner (Winooski)
• Dr. Nikhil Goyal (Burlington)
• Former Representative Mike Rice (Dorset)

As I said, this is not an exhaustive list! If you think I missed a good potential candidate, let me know. If you are one of these people or someone else who’s thinking of running, get in touch! If you know one of these people or someone else who would make a good candidate, plant the seed in their heads!

Vermonters deserve a real choice next year, not another one-sided blowout. To those of you who are here for my usual cutting analysis of spreadsheets and campaign finance reports, I apologize for getting on my soapbox. We’ll be back to your regularly scheduled content soon!

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